Abstract
If the Himalayas is the glorious past, the Indian Ocean (IO) is the golden future of Bangladesh. Beyond the Bay of Bengal makes an endeavour to audaciously inspire the readers - the patriotic citizens of Bangladesh to look beyond the horizon of the Bay of Bengal in the IO to ensure not only the ascendency towards development in the true sense of the term, but to sustain the developed status of the country from 2041 and beyond. This paper provides an intrepid inspiration for the people of Bangladesh with a firm conviction that all our fortunes are at sea.
Key Words: Competition, Convergence, Dilemma, Divergence, Realpolitik
“There are riches enough for all of us, no matter our abilities or circumstances. It is only the inspiration that requires summoning”
- Robert D. Kaplan
Introduction
To begin with the visionary statement of our honorable Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina: “The Bay of Bengal is an inseparable part of Bangladesh and is our third neighbour.” According to Willem Van Schendel, a prominent historian: “In a sense Bangladesh is the Himalayas, flattened out” (2010). The writer of this article posits that if the Himalayas is Bangladesh’s glorious past, the IO is the country’s golden future.
The brief discourse is intended as an ambitious ‘dream’ of many of Bangladesh’s citizens who very firmly believe that ‘all our fortunes are at sea’ not only in the riches of the Bay of Bengal, but beyond in the IO. Fifteen or fifty years from today, our prospective future generation, when this ‘dream’ comes true, will need the wealth of the Ocean spaces to sustain the developed status of the nation.
The paper unfolds setting the objective, followed by highlighting important maritime milestones under the heading ‘timing is important’. Before briefly discussing the Sino-Indian Realpolitik of the IO, the Realpolitik stake of Bangladesh and the legal framework within the ambit of the third United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS III) of 1982 is scrutinized. However, notwithstanding the fact as Reinhold Niebuhr is quoted by Guilhot (2011) as the former had endorsed, “a theory must do justice to the complexities of change”, various International Relations (IR) theories and particularly the Realpolitik of the USA and other Indian Ocean Region (IOR) littorals are deliberately left undiscussed for the brevity of the paper.
Objective
The objective of the article is to stimulate the readers to reckon beyond the Bay of Bengal towards the IO for Bangladesh’s golden future.
Timing is Important
“When the strike of a hawk breaks the body of its prey, it is because of timing”,3 wrote Sun Tzu two and a half millennia ago. In the maritime narrative of Bangladesh timing is one of the crucial components. It is pertinent to start connecting couple of such eventful timing, which ushered the birth of a nation the dawn of a Maritime Bangladesh:
a. Historic 21-point Programme of United Front in 1954 and 6-point Programme of Awami League led by Bangabandhu in 1966 strongly raised the demand to shift Naval Headquarters from Karachi to East Pakistan.
b. Territorial waters and Maritime Zones Act, 1974 (Act No. XXVI of 1974) to provide for the declaration of the territorial waters and maritime zones almost a decade before the birth of the UNCLOS III of 1982.
c. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) verdict on dispute concerning delimitation of the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal on 14 March 2012.
d. The Bay of Bengal Maritime Boundary Arbitration between Bangladesh and India by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on 07 July 2014.
Therefore, even before the glorious war of liberation in 1971, the Father of the Nation recognized that the leadership are responsible for creating a maritime Bangladesh. The above events can be called the Maritime ‘Aha Moment’ as envisaged by the political leadership of Bangladesh to provide an impetus - a strategy to start designing the maritime destiny of the nation. A terse quote from Napoleon Bonaparte on the importance of time may also be recalled: “Strategy is the art of making use of time”. If the title of the article causes ‘raising of eyebrows’ of some critique, then the similar group of critiques “rose theirs” in those days as mentioned above. Perhaps, it is quite logical to say that if Bangladesh’s leadership did not have the “Maritime Vision” at that point of time in history, probably the country’s landscapes and seascapes would look very different today. By the same token, it can be argued that if Bangladesh does not look beyond the Bay of Bengal today, and reckon in the high seas as an opportunity given by the UNCLOS III, the current generation of ours likely to be blamed by our progeny in the future.
Solonian Law Code Vis-Ã -Vis The Law of The Sea
Solon was an ancient Athenian statesman, who is still considered as one of the Seven Wise Men of Greece. A parallel can be drawn from the history between Solonian law code and the UNCLOS III of 1982. Solon ended the exclusive upper-class control of the government by the wealthy and introduced a new and more humane law code. Likewise, signing of UNCLOS III on 10 Dec 1982 culminated almost 14 years work participated by more than 150 countries from all region of the globe promoting the concept ‘common heritage of mankind’. The context was about the question of the preservation of the seabed and ocean floor exclusively for peaceful purposes.
The UNCLOS III entered into force on 14 November 1994 and is presently binding for 154 States as well as the European Community. Like many other signatories, as mentioned above, Bangladesh has already reaped the benefit of this convention in settling her maritime disputes amicably with the neighbours in demarcating various maritime areas and zones. While the related individual experts and the political leadership involved in the process of dispute settlement deserve special appreciation, the author of this article feels that that has been a good start and now can be used as a springboard for additional mission(s) to be accomplished in the expanse of the IO. Specially in line with the UNCLOS III and the context of various activities, exploration, exploitation, or recovery of the living and nonliving resources including solid, liquid, or gaseous mineral plus polymetallic nodules of the ‘high seas’ (UNCLOS III Part VII), ‘freedom of scientific research’ (UNCLOS III Part VI and XIII), the Area (UNCLOS III Part XI) as the ‘common heritage of mankind’ (UNCLOS III Part XI, Section 2, Article 136) including protection and preservation of the marine environment (Part XII) need due consideration.
The adage goes like: “pick the low-hanging fruit”! Now then the country has determined her sea areas, Bangladesh needs to lay a comprehensive plan to harvest from the opportunities given by the UNCLOS III well beyond the Bay of Bengal deep into the IO. And if others are sharing the ‘fruits’ even of the polar region, why Bangladesh should not, can be a legitimate question. In this regard, it is also of utmost importance to articulate and align both vertically and horizontally the vision, mission(s), objective(s), strategy (ies) and action plan(s)-the VMOSA of different maritime organizations of the country selecting or establishing the lead agency. That brings a pointed discussion towards the vital need of a ‘Maritime Division’ under the PM’s office.
Sino-Indian Realpolitik of The IO
Admiral Prof Jaynath Colombage, former chief of Sri Lanka navy and the current director of Pathfinder Foundation, Sri Lanka, describes the IOR in six words: “Strategic Competition, Strategic Convergence, Strategic Dilemma”. What is meant by these six words are that the region is no longer a ‘benign region’, or ‘Indian Ocean Zone of Peace’ (IOZOP) spirit no longer exists. Rather it is a ‘contested region’ moving from unipolarity to multipolarity amidst promotion of own national interest vis-Ã -vis security dilemma of the region.
IOR- a region of mistrust, that can be seen through three dimensions: Political, Economic and Military dimensions. As Hossain and Islam (2016) observe while quoting Potgieter, “the resultant effect of such geo-strategic competitions is clear: IO region has been less stable, with much rivalry, competition, suspicion and turmoil.” Though the true economic value of the Indian Ocean resources is unknown, but the estimated value amounts to hundreds of trillion dollars, thus the ancient name “Ratnakara” or the “repository of jewels” for the IO is more than justified.
The origin of Realpolitik, as a debate about the possibilities of German unification, was traced back in 1848 following European revolution. Its originator was August Ludwig von Rochau, in the words of Duncan Kelly who teaches politics at the University of Cambridge, “he was a radical who was jailed for his politics as a student, worked in exile as a travel writer, then returned home to Germany to become a political journalist and eventually, a politician”. He published Grundsätze der Realpolitik (lightly translated as “Fundamentals of Realpolitik”) in 1853. The arguments of the book particularly applied to the waning confederation of German states.“To understand Realpolitik is simply to understand politics, no more, no less” says Duncan Kelly. According to Jonathan Haslam, “the notion of reasons of state re-emerged under the cover of Realpolitik in the Germany of the 19th century and in due course found its way across Atlantic.” (Haslam 2002). By the same token, it can be argued that with the shifting of the economic and strategic ‘Centre of Gravity’ to the IO, Realpolitik has also found its platform in the IOR.
As an answer to the question of what exactly Realpolitik is, Encyclopedia Britannica defines Realpolitik as a political philosophy; “Realpolitik, politics based on practical objectives rather than on ideals. Realpolitik thus suggests a pragmatic view and a disregard for ethical considerations. In diplomacy it is often associated with relentless, though realistic, pursuit of the national interest.” Many IR proponents compare its philosophical approach with those of realism and pragmatism simply referring Realpolitik as “pursuing pragmatic policies” in politics.
Realism on the other hand has originated in the writings of classical thinkers such as Thucydides, Kautilya, Machiavelli and Hobbes. After the second World War Hans J. Morgenthau is credited to establish realism as an alternative to ‘idealism’. However, there are two important critiques of Realism: An International Society critique and an Emancipatory critique mentioned the consequence of IR in the context of Realism that it is “becoming obsolete as a theoretical approach” and “irrelevant as a practical attitude to world politics” (Jackson and Sørensen, pp 90-93). On the other hand, John Bew advocates a return to Rochau’s “real” Realpolitik. He (Bew 2016) observes that “the law of the strong” had not “suddenly evaporated just because it was unjust.” Here Realpolitik becomes a very handy tool for identifying politics credibly in its correct context. The main requirement is to have a framework to investigate rising above bias. A framework that predicts the extent of political possibility of the time, knows the influence of ideas, power of opinions and supremacy of connections between political power and imagination with economics and the chemistry of a society.
Shyam Saran (2017) believes India’s foreign policy as a “reasonably potent weapon”. He posits, “whether Indian foreign policy should be based on unalloyed ‘realpolitik’ bereft of any moral or ethical anchor or whether it should aspire to a higher purpose, transcending in some way the essentially competitive character of interstate relations, is a matter of debate.” Indian vision for the IOR is claimed to preserve India’s‘organic unity while advancing cooperation’. India wants to use their capabilities for the ‘collective well-being and the mutual benefit’ of their maritime neighbours. Therefore, India envisages the IO ‘as an engine for growth and prosperity’ in and beyond IOR. Thus, it is of utmost importance to India ‘that these waters remain safe and secure.’
Map 1: Indian Ocean Space View
The above vision was pronounced by Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi in 2015 when he put forward the concept of SAGAR - “Security and Growth for All in the Region”. SAGAR and SAGARMALA may be viewed or interpreted as Indian reaction or counter action in the garb of Realpolitik of the IO as it has distinct but inter-related elements that emphasizes India’s engagement in the IO. According to Indian official sources, however, these are first of the “conceptual” template/constructs of “three layered structure in the Indian Ocean” where the second being IORA (socio-economic and cultural level) and the third is the IONS (execution level).
The principles enshrined in SAGAR as depicted in the map 2 below provides a coherent framework ‘to address some of the challenges relating to economic revival, connectivity, security, culture and identity, and India’s own evolving approach to these issues.’ The challenge before India is to ensure Indo-Pacific trade and investment, and the sustainable recovery of the wealth of the seas: food, medicines and renewable energy.
Map 2: Indian Ocean Space View
In the parlance of ‘subjectivity and objectivity’, writes Daily Noya Diganta, “China qualifies in both arenas, where India has a mismatch between these two as she over estimated her capability to dreams to lead the neighbours as reflected in her foreign policy. The Nepalese hydro power project of 1200 megawatt is a case in point.” The map 3 below describes China’s ‘real’ intention to not only infesting the IO by its warships and submarines but also encircling India. Among other Chinese activities around the IO that is about to be discussed in the following paragraphs this very naval forces employment may be viewed and interpreted as Chinese Realpolitik of the Indian Ocean.
“The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not a Chinese plot”, the Chinese President Xi Jinping is quoted to have said, “It is neither the post WW II Marshall Plan, nor is it a Chinese conspiracy. If you had to (call it something), it’s an overt plot.”
Map 3: China’s application of ‘Realpolitik’ in India’s neighbourhood
China’s vision for globalisation - the BRI is seen by many IR experts as a Beijing style challenge to the US led world order after the fall of USSR. Although, for China it is the pursuance of their ‘national interest’ and a vehicle to their peaceful rise, India feels they are gradually ‘encircled’ by Chinese application of ‘Realpolitik’. India’s assertion of such feelings is interpreted as many western scholars ‘often compare China and India to the Dragon and Elephant and label their relationship as one of confrontation and competition’ (Li, 2015). As can be seen from the map 4 below, China’s BRI or Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is a complex econo-diplomatic and geopolitical ambition that has transformed through various manifestations.
Map 4: China’s BRI (MSR) in Eurasia and Africa
The BRI envisages a US$1.3 trillion investment programme in creating a network of infrastructures such as ports, roads, railways, telecommunications and energy pipelines in Asia, Africa and Europe. This initiative is ‘real’ and expected to enhance Chinese sphere of influence practically in the realm of not only economic interconnectivity but also contribute to economic growth including development across more than 60 partner nations. First proposed in September 2013, it may not be imprudent to posit that BRI is the Beijing style ‘Realpolitik’ – the translation and application of a far-sighted ‘real’ foreign policy initiative of the Chinese President Xi Jinping. There is no doubt that a project of such unprecedented magnitude having crucial geopolitical and geo-economic scope is likely to relegate other players in the race particularly in the IOR.
Bangladesh’s Realpolitik Stake in The IO
As part of Bangladesh’s “look south” policy, Bangladesh has achieved what she was supposed to achieve. What is needed now is “act south” policy formulation and implementation to understand why Bangladesh ought to look beyond the Bay of Bengal. One need to understand that the stake is very high. One also need to do ‘net-assessment’ among the resources of the Ocean, Realpolitik among various actors and the associated challenges. And although detailed discussion about all these factors are outside the scope of this brief discourse, to do justice to the readers some salient are highlighted in the above paragraphs.
Besides, if the power of geography and geographic circumstances in the context of IO are analysed, it will be seen that the outcome dictates the IR of the IOR countries. In this regard Robert D. Kaplan, “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power” (Kaplan 2010) speaks of IO as an area of the world, which is likely to be of immense importance for next 200 to 300 or 500 years to come. Furthermore: IO is a single zone of trade and military activity; at any given point there is a presence of 100 to 120 naval vessels in the IO waters; many canals and land bridge projects are already underway. China and Japan are funding canal Isthmus of Thailand to connect the Bay of Bengal with the south China sea. That means connecting IO with the Western Pacific; Port of Dubai project is envisaged to link Malay Peninsula on the other side of South China sea; finally, in addition to the supply of energy for China, India, Japan, South Korea and others despite tremendous innovation in the Information and Communication Technology, more than 90% of the commerce are transported using IO waters. And Bangladesh must view these developments without losing focus of the ‘Big Picture’- the enormous opportunity provided by the UNCLOS III as emphasized above.
Two observations from Suchita Ghosh (1995) appear quite interesting and relevant: the Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping’s description of Bangladesh as “almost like a relative of China”. And that “history pushes Bangladesh away from India while geography pulls it towards India.” Amidst many divergent views and actions in the IO between China and India and diametrically opposing forces of IR between Bangladesh and India, it is the onus of the Bangladeshi policy makers to unveil the ‘golden means’, the right manoeuvring formula within the Realpolitik framework for Bangladesh.
Epilogue
The rights of coastal states to benefit from the ‘common heritage of mankind’ as well as the jurisdiction of maritime governance regarding coastal zone management, integrated coastal zone management of the seas and ocean spaces are clearly delineated by the legal framework such as UNCLOS III of 1982, IMO conventions and protocols including the relevant domestic laws. There are claims that UNCLOS III is ambiguous regarding governance beyond national jurisdiction. However, this should in no way discourage Bangladesh to explore and exploit the resources of the ‘Ratnakara’. But as a first step we must ‘dream’ to go to the IO. And this dream should take away our sleep as a nation on its awesome economic ascendency with a vision to be a developed country by 2041.
The analysis of IO and its surroundings- the IOR reveals that the strategic scenario vis-Ã -vis threat as well as other challenges in the realm of IR between and among the IOR states knowingly or inadvertently are engaged in Realpolitik.The manifestation of it is the prophesies of host of scholars that a new world order led by China is in the making and IO is playing a significant role in its shaping. Prominent among the countries involved in this ‘big game’ of Realpolitik in the IO are USA, China and India. What will be the reply of China today if reminded that it voted for declaring IOZOP in 1971 against the motion of the other four security council members? What comfort India would provide to her neighbours to reduce their agony? Realpolitik to promote ‘national interest’ could possibly be the answer !
Bangladeshi policy makers and particularly the maritime think tanks and Foreign Affairs officials should read the Realpolitik writings on the waters of the IO, should listen to the sounds of the Ocean waves revealing the ‘fog and friction’ of BRI, MSR, SAGAR, SAGARMALA, Quad and the Quad plus. Why should they listen? They should listen to translate the “writings and the sounds” of the IO to articulate our own narrative, to inscribe the ‘strategy’ and ‘action plans’ for our beloved maritime speck of land to unveil the golden future by embracing the ‘monsoon’ of the IO. Imitating Ulysses the legendary Greek hero, the king of Ithaca, it can be said that it is not too late to discover a “Newer World”. Bangladesh can cast off and set the sail beyond the sunset with “heroic hearts”, which are “strong in will” to persevere, to explore and never give up.
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Biography of the Writer
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Commodore Syed Misbahuddin Ahmed, (C), NUP, ndc, afwc, psc, BN was commissioned in the Executive Branch of Bangladesh Navy on 01 July 1988. In his early carrier, he served in various highly demanding staff and teaching appointments and attended number of professional educational courses and training both at home and abroad. He successfully completed BN Junior Staff Course in 1995 and attended Communication and Electronic Warfare Specialization Course in Pakistan in 1997. He did Staff Course at Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur in 2002. Commodore Misbah did his second staff course in USA and became a top distinguished graduate from US Navy War College (NWC) in 2003. He did war Course in 2008. Commodore Misbah has served in different ships and establishments in various command, operation and staff assignments. He has successfully commanded couple of BN ships, namely, BNS SHAH AMANAT, BNS NIRBHOY and BNS SANGU including one of the missile Corvette BNS DHALESHWARI. He also served as secretary to the Chief of Naval Staff of BN. He attended UN Peace Keeping Operation in Sudan as Military Observer in 2005 and 2006. The officer has also been awarded with the Navy medal of excellence - NUP for his dedicated service to the Navy. Prior to completing National Defence Course at NDC in 2016, he served as Directing Staff at the Armed Forces War Course Wing at National Defence College for three consecutive academic years (2013-2015). He received the best Individual Research Project (IRP) award in NDC 2016. Commodore Misbah received Chancellor’s Gold Medal for his outstanding Academic performance in 2017. The officer obtained his Bachelors and Masters in Bachelor of Security Studies (BoSS) and Masters in Strategic and Development Studies (MSDS) respectively from BUP. The officer is currently pursuing his PhD from BUP. The officer visited a good number of countries for education, training and other official purposes. Commodore Misbah is happily married and blessed with two sons. He enjoys reading as a passion and contributes to various defence journals and magazines regularly. He is a resource person for Quality Education, Strategy, War Studies, Communication, Military History and regularly conducts Workshops, Seminars etc in different Universities and Military educational and training Institutions. Commodore Misbah is presently serving as DA to Brazil.
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